EVENT · 6 OUTCOMES
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
+1 more outcomesView event →
Markets
1,094 live Polymarket markets in 499 events- LowGotchaBIG MOVE · ▲ 23 PTS
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 20?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks94.1¢+22.6¢ 24hWHY IT MOVED · COIN PRICEBTC (Binance): +0.7% in the move hour, +1.3% over 24 hours. - EVENT · 8 OUTCOMES
Bitcoin above ___ on October 21?
+3 more outcomesView event → - MedGotchaBIG MOVE · ▼ 19 PTS
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions63¢−15.5¢ 24hWHY IT MOVED · NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCENot enough evidence for a likely driver yet. - EVENT · 19 OUTCOMES
What price will Bitcoin hit in October?
+14 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 6 OUTCOMES
Bitcoin above ___ on October 22?
+1 more outcomesView event → - LowGotchaBIG MOVE · ▼ 18 PTS
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor election?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver36.5¢−11¢ since Oct 16Since Oct 16Range 35.5–47.5¢ · explanation pending - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
MLB World Series Champion 2026
Change in points, 24hView event →Milwaukee Brewers · 7 daysRange 27–66% - EVENT · 5 OUTCOMES
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
Change in points, 24hView event → - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá
Change in points, 24hView event →Flavio Bolsonaro · 7 daysRange 63–84% - LowGotchaBIG MOVE · ▼ 16 PTS
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks50¢−9.5¢ 24hWHY IT MOVED · NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCENot enough evidence for a likely driver yet. - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
Change in points, 24hView event →No Hormuz Agreement · 7 daysRange 86–97% - LowGotchaBIG MOVE · ▲ 13 PTS
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 21?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks53¢+14¢ 24hWHY IT MOVED · COIN PRICEETH (Binance): +1.1% in the move hour, +1.0% over 24 hours. - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
Change in points, 24hView event →No Hormuz Agreement · 7 daysRange 80–95% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →November 2 · Since Oct 17Range 5–19% - EVENT · 7 OUTCOMES
What price will Ethereum hit in October?
+2 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
Which Senate races will be within 5%?
Change in points, 24hView event → - LowGotcha
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver11.05¢+5.2¢ since Oct 18Since Oct 18Range 5.85–13.45¢ - MedGotcha
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMWording12.5¢−1¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–14.5¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Texas Railroad Commissioner Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Bo French (R) · 7 daysRange 40–59% - EVENT · 8 OUTCOMES
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%40%▼ 1Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%28%▼ 4Lula da Silva <4%21%▲ 2Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%10%▲ 1Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+3%±0+3 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 6 OUTCOMES
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
+1 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
Alaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Change in points, 24hView event → - EVENT · 10 OUTCOMES
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia71%▲ 2Student List – Students Win31%▼ 1Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%±0Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)<1%±0Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor<1%±0+5 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 19 OUTCOMES
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot50%▲ 2Benjamin Netanyahu28%▼ 5Naftali Bennett14%▼ 1Avigdor Lieberman3%▲ 1Itamar Ben Gvir<1%±0+14 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 7 OUTCOMES
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
+2 more outcomesView event → - MedGotcha
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions8.5¢+2¢ 7d7 daysRange 5.5–12.5¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Israeli Legislative Election: 2nd Place
Change in points, 24hView event →Likud · 7 daysRange 45–69% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais
Change in points, 24hView event →Flavio Bolsonaro · 7 daysRange 82–96% - MedGotcha
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 4 MEDIUMResolverTimingWording+14.85¢−1.65¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.05–9¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad
Change in points, 24hView event →Lula · 7 daysRange 63–72% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
CO-04 House Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Lauren Boebert (R) · 7 daysFlat at 72% - MedGotcha
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverExceptions4.45¢+3.95¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.5–4.9¢ - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Change in points, 24hView event →October 21 · Since Oct 17Range 91–98% - LowGotcha
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks2.65¢−3.85¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.45–6.5¢ - MedGotcha
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverTimingExceptions21.5¢−4.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 21.5–26¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Texas Governor Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Greg Abbott (R) · 7 daysRange 73–80% - EVENT · 5 OUTCOMES
Fed Decision in October?
Change in points, 24hView event → - EVENT · 19 OUTCOMES
Commanders vs. 49ers
+14 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Abdul El-Sayed (D) · 7 daysRange 69–72% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Sherrod Brown (D) · 7 daysRange 62–69% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Mississippi Senate Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) · 7 daysRange 88–94% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Chris Pappas (D) · 7 daysRange 88–91% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
NC-11 House Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Jamie Ager (D) · Since Oct 14Range 75–86% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Oregon Governor Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Tina Kotek (D) · 7 daysRange 76–79% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
TX-23 House Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Brandon Herrera (R) · 7 daysRange 64–72% - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Kansas Senate Election Margin of Victory
Change in points, 24hView event →Hamilton Wins · Since Oct 14Range 37–39% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
NJ-07 House Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Rebecca Bennett (D) · 7 daysRange 90–93%