Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Current price
1.65¢
+0.55¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.65%
$45.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market contains a specific party-attribution rule: if Likud runs on a joint candidate list or merges with another party, all seats won by the combined list count toward the threshold, not just individual Likud candidates. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with official figures from Israel's Central Elections Committee serving as the fallback if ambiguity arises. Additionally, the rules include a timeout resolving to the lowest bracket if results are not known by October 31, 2027, language likely carried over from a multi-bracket market.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Likud party will secure at least 35 seats in the Knesset in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, including seats won via any joint list or merged party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Likud wins 35 or more Knesset seats in the election. If Likud runs as part of a joint candidate list or merges with another party, all seats won by the joint list or merged party count toward the total. The market resolves No if Likud wins fewer than 35 seats. If election results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from Israel's Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — Expected date for the Israeli legislative election.
- Definitive results deadline: — If results are unknown by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket.
Resolution source
Israel's Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.