Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Current price
26.5¢
−6.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 26.5%
$492.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the official election results for the Israeli Knesset, with Israel's Central Election Committee serving as the authoritative backup source. Detailed mechanisms govern potential candidate list mergers, splits, and tie-breakers based on popular vote count and alphabetical ordering. A long timeout window extending to June 30, 2027 accounts for any potential certification delays.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party. Otherwise: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. - If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Likud wins the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. The resolution includes specific tie-breaking rules based on votes and alphabetical order, and detailed provisions for party mergers or splits.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Likud wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset in the 2026 legislative election. If multiple parties or coalitions tie for the most seats, the market resolves in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received more valid votes. If a tie still exists, the market resolves in favor of the party whose listed name appears first alphabetically. The market resolves No if Likud does not win the greatest number of seats. The market resolves Other if the election results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If Likud merges with another party or contests the election jointly, the Likud option represents the resultant candidate list or merged party. If a listed party splits, the option represents the resulting party with the most seats. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, or official results from Israel’s Central Election Committee if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected Election Date:
- Resolution Deadline: — If results are not definitively known by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit)
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