Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
10 live outcomes · highest priced: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia at 69% (+8 pts in 24h) · first close Oct 25, 2026 · $1.3M total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election to determine which electoral list will secure the most seats in the 250-member National Assembly of Serbia. Each market represents a competing electoral list.
How the outcomes relate
Each market corresponds to a specific electoral list running in the election. Because markets resolve to the single list that wins the greatest number of seats (with tiebreaker rules applied), at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if its specified electoral list finishes in the top position based primarily on the number of seats won in the National Assembly. If lists tie on seats, ties are broken first by total valid votes received, and then by alphabetical order. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia if ambiguous. If results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other".
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the Serbian parliamentary elections
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET after which the market resolves to "Other" if results remain unknown
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia used in cases of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia | 69% | ▲ 8 | Low | High | |
| Student List – Students Win | 32% | ▼ 7 | Low | High | |
| Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP) | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low |