Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
27.5¢
−4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 27.5%
$8.6M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market title asks if Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next Prime Minister, but the rules tie resolution specifically to the person sworn in following the next parliamentary election (whether scheduled in 2026 or called early). Any mid-term change in leadership or rotation that occurs without an election being held, as well as interim or caretaker appointments, will not trigger resolution. If government formation stalls and no Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to Other. Official government records serve as the primary source, backed by a consensus of credible reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next individual officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election, or an election called early. Caretaker or interim Prime Ministers do not count.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu is officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election or an early election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count toward resolution. The market resolves No if a different individual is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister following the election. The market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is formally sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies primarily on official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Scheduled parliamentary election: — Date legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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