Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?

Current price

5.75¢

−7.5¢ · 24h

Implied probability 5.75%
$1.7M total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 5.65–23.05¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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This market resolves based on the official outcome of the 2026 MLB World Series using official MLB information, with credible reporting as a secondary source. The rules explicitly permit early resolution to No as soon as the team is mathematically or competitively eliminated from contention. Additionally, if the season is cancelled, delayed beyond December 31, 2026, or concludes without an official champion, the market will resolve to Other rather than Yes or No.

Wording ambiguity: Low
Source discretion: Low
Timing risk: Low
Exceptional clauses: Med

Liquidity

High tradability

Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.

Book depth $107.8K within 5¢ of mid
Depth updated 2 min ago

Price history range

Price history

Market price

24h7dAll

Why it moved

Down 11 points · 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The market fell from 21% to 10% alongside broader repricing across related World Series contenders, including moves in markets for the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers, which acted as the likely driver.

Largest hourly change: 01:00 UTC, 48% of the net 24-hour change.
Closes 12 days after the move hour.
2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: Tampa Bay Rays (up), Milwaukee Brewers (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for sports markets yet.

AI-generated · 18 Oct 2026, 22:05 UTC

Up 12 points · 13 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The price for the Cleveland Guardians to win the 2026 World Series rose from 0.0675 to 0.18, with simultaneous repricing across related championship outcomes, including the Milwaukee Brewers, acting as the likely driver.

Largest hourly change: 02:00 UTC, 57% of the net 24-hour change.
Closes 17 days after the move hour.
1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: Milwaukee Brewers (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for sports markets yet.

AI-generated · 14 Oct 2026, 01:05 UTC

Resolution rules

Captured Jul 30, 2026

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether the Cleveland Guardians will win the 2026 Major League Baseball World Series.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 MLB World Series. The market resolves to No if at any point it becomes impossible for the Cleveland Guardians to win the 2026 World Series per MLB rules, such as being eliminated from playoff contention. The market resolves to Other if the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed past December 31, 2026 ET, or if no champion is declared within that timeframe. Official information from Major League Baseball is the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Key dates

Season resolution cutoff: Dec 31, 2026 — Market resolves to Other if the season is cancelled, postponed past this date, or has no winner declared.

Resolution source

Official information from MLB or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Aug 2026, 12:43 UTC

Community forecast

Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.