Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Current price
66.5¢
−2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 66.5%
$8.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how seat counts will be ranked and provide explicit tie-breaking criteria based first on valid popular votes and subsequently on alphabetical order. Resolution is anchored to official Israeli government and Central Elections Committee data if credible reporting leaves any ambiguity. A generous fallback deadline is established for June 30, 2027, resolving to Other if official results are not definitively known, leaving minimal room for unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Likud will finish in second place for Knesset seats won in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, using specific tie-breaking rules if necessary.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Likud wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset following the 2026 election. Ties in seat counts are broken first by the total number of valid votes received, and then by the alphabetical order of the party or coalition names. The market resolves to No if another party or coalition finishes in the second position under these rules. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Israeli government and Central Election Committee if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — Date legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel.
- Resolution cutoff date: — If results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit), as the deciding authority in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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