Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Current price
14.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 14.5%
$10.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution is determined by the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range following the October 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Official Federal Reserve statements and web pages are designated as the direct resolution sources, leaving no room for interpretive discretion. Explicit rounding rules handle non-standard rate changes, and a definitive fallback resolves the market to no change if no statement is published by the conclusion of the following meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points following its October 2026 FOMC meeting. Rate adjustments not matching standard options are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range increases by 25 basis points relative to its level before the October 2026 meeting, including non-standard increases that round up to 25 basis points. The market resolves No if the rate change is any different amount, if rates are decreased or kept unchanged, or if no statement is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting. The outcome is determined using the FOMC statement released after the October 27–28, 2026 meeting or the official Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting dates: — The FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27–28, 2026, after which the statement is released.
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee statement and Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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