Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
Current price
10.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 10.5%
$173.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes winning as a Republican, specifying that the winner must be the official party nominee and that candidates running as independents do not qualify regardless of party affiliation. Resolution relies on three specific named media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—and requires all three to agree on the projected winner. If there is no consensus among these three sources, the market falls back to the official state election certification. The rules also explicitly account for candidate replacements prior to election day and include any necessary runoffs.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire. A notable detail is that candidates running as independents are excluded from the party options regardless of past affiliations.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. If a named candidate is replaced as the party's nominee before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not qualify as Republican or Democratic nominees regardless of affiliation. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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