Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Current price
27.05¢
+2.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 27.05%
$112.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly identify Israel's Central Election Committee as the authoritative fallback source behind general reporting consensus. However, participants should note a significant aggregation clause: if Likud runs on a joint candidate list or merges with another party, all seats won by the entire combined list count toward the total, not just individual Likud members. Additionally, the fallback timeout clause states the market will resolve to the lowest range bracket if results are not known by October 31, 2027, which appears copied from a multi-outcome bracket market and creates slight ambiguity for this binary question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Likud party will win fewer than 20 seats in the Israeli Knesset in the 2026 legislative election, counting all seats from any joint list or merged party Likud joins.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Likud party wins fewer than 20 seats in the Knesset as a result of the 2026 Israeli legislative election. If Likud runs as part of a joint candidate list or merges with another party, all seats won by the joint list or merged entity count toward this total. The market resolves No if Likud (or its joint candidate list or merged party) wins 20 or more seats. If the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from Israel's Central Elections Committee if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — Date on which legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel.
- Definitive results deadline: — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET after which the market resolves to the lowest range bracket if results remain unknown.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or Israel's Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit)
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