Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Current price
63¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 63%
$4.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how the margin of victory is calculated and specifically address Alaska's ranked-choice voting system by noting that the margin will be evaluated in the final round that determines the winner. While the primary resolution source is the official state election authority, the rules allow for a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary option, introducing minor source discretion if reporting is relied upon before official certification.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the margin of victory in the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate race is 5% or less. If the election uses multi-round or ranked-choice voting, the margin is evaluated specifically in the round that determines the winner.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the 2026 Alaska Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. The margin of victory is the absolute difference between the vote percentages of the first- and second-place candidates, calculated by dividing each candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast. For multi-round, runoff, or ranked-choice elections, the margin is measured in the round where the winner is determined. The market resolves to No if the margin of victory is greater than 5%. The state election authority decides the outcome, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date the 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held
Resolution source
The state election authority of the specified state, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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