Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Current price
67¢
−2.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 67%
$3.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how the margin of victory is calculated, specifically addressing Maine's ranked-choice voting system by noting that the margin will be based on the round in which the winner is determined. Official state election authorities serve as the primary source, though market deciders also retain the discretion to use a consensus of credible reporting, which could lead to early resolution before official certification.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the margin of victory in the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race is 5% or less. For multi-round or ranked-choice voting, the margin is calculated from the final round determining the winner.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the absolute difference between the vote percentages of the first-place and second-place candidates is 5% or less. Candidate percentages are calculated by dividing each top-two candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in that round. For multi-round, ranked-choice, or runoff systems, the margin is evaluated using the final round in which the winner is decided. The market resolves to No if the margin of victory is greater than 5%. The outcome is determined by the state election authority of Maine, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Scheduled date for the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Maine state election authority or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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