Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Current price
0.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$6.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the outcome tracks changes to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range following the October 27-28, 2026 FOMC meeting. Resolution relies on direct official publications from the Federal Reserve website. A specific rounding rule handles non-standard rate adjustments by rounding up to the nearest 25 basis points, and a straightforward fallback clause resolves to no change if no statement is released before the subsequent meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 50 basis points or more following the October 2026 FOMC meeting. Rate adjustments not matching standard options are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range is increased by 50 basis points or more relative to its level before the October 2026 meeting. If the rate is adjusted to an unlisted increment, the change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. The market resolves No if the rate is increased by less than 50 basis points, stays unchanged, or is cut. If no official statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled FOMC meeting, the market resolves to the No change outcome. Resolution is determined by the FOMC post-meeting statement and the Federal Reserve official website.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting start: — First day of the scheduled FOMC meeting.
- FOMC meeting end: — Conclusion of the FOMC meeting and expected statement release.
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee statement and Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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