47.5¢
−12¢ · 24h
Implied probability 47.5%
$10.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
The rules clearly list which specific political parties count toward each bloc and explicitly exclude unlisted parties from the seat counts. Clear tie-breaking mechanisms are defined, first by total votes among threshold-passing named parties and then splitting equally if still tied. While initial resolution relies on reporting consensus, a named official authority—Israel's Central Election Committee—serves as the definitive backup source if any ambiguity arises. A distant fallback resolution date of June 30, 2027, is provided in case final election results are delayed.
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
The price fell from 60% to 46%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
News check after 18:00 UTC.
AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 13:51 UTC
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Bibi” (Netanyahu bloc) if Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win a greater combined total of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election than The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu. This market will resolve to “Opp.” (opposition bloc) if The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu win a greater combined total of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election than Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas. Seats won by any party not named above will not count toward either bloc. If both blocs win the same combined number of seats, this market will resolve to the bloc whose named parties received the greater combined total of valid votes, counting only the votes of named parties that pass the electoral threshold. If the blocs remain tied, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Rules history is not displayed yet.
This market measures whether the Netanyahu ("Bibi") bloc or the opposition ("Opp.") bloc wins more Knesset seats in the next Israeli legislative election, counting only specifically listed parties for each side.
The market resolves to "Bibi" if Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win more combined Knesset seats than the opposing group. It resolves to "Opp." if The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu win more combined seats. Seats won by unlisted parties do not count for either bloc. If both blocs tie in seats, the market resolves to the bloc with more total valid votes among named parties that passed the electoral threshold. If still tied, or if results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves 50-50. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with Israel's Central Election Committee serving as the official authority if ambiguity arises.
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) if ambiguity arises
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.