Will the New Hampshire 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
Current price
33¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 33%
$3.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules provide a clear mathematical formula for calculating the margin of victory, specifying that the difference between the top two candidates is calculated against the total sum of all valid votes cast, with 5.0% or less resolving to Yes. Official state election authorities serve as the primary resolution source, although deciders retain the discretion to resolve earlier based on a consensus of credible reporting before final official certification.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the margin of victory in the 2026 New Hampshire U.S. Senate race is 5% or less.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the margin of victory in the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race is 5% or less. Margin of victory is the absolute difference between the valid vote percentages of the first- and second-place candidates, calculated from total valid votes cast, or the final deciding round for multi-round elections. The market resolves to No if the margin of victory is greater than 5%. Resolution is determined by the state election authority of New Hampshire, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Midterm election date: — The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on this date.
Resolution source
State election authority of New Hampshire, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.