Will Shas win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$11K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the winning condition based on the number of Knesset seats won, referencing consensus reporting with a decisive fallback to official results from Israel's Central Elections Committee. Detailed tiebreaker mechanisms use total valid votes followed by alphabetical order. Participants should note the specific clauses governing joint electoral lists, party mergers, and splits, which explicitly assign all seats of a joint list to the party with the most seats in the previous Knesset or determine representation via alphabetical priority if unresolvable. A definitive resolution cutoff date of June 30, 2027, resolves the market to Other if results remain undetermined.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party. Otherwise: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. - If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Shas (or its qualifying merged entity) wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset in the 2026 legislative election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Shas wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset in the 2026 election, or wins via tiebreak. Ties for most seats are broken first by the greater number of valid votes received by the candidate list, and then by alphabetical order of the party name. Specific succession rules apply if Shas merges, runs on a joint list, or splits prior to the election. The market resolves to No if another party or coalition wins the most seats. The market resolves to Other if election results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with Israel's Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) serving as the deciding source in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — Date legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel.
- Definitive results deadline: — If results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit)
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