Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Current price
21.5¢
−10.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 21.5%
$19.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market establishes straightforward criteria for determining which entity finishes in second place by Knesset seats won in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. It provides clear, sequential tie-breaking mechanics based on total valid votes and alphabetical order if necessary. While initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, it specifies an official governmental fallback to the Central Elections Committee in the event of ambiguity. A long stop date of June 30, 2027, is included to handle prolonged uncertainty by resolving to Other, ensuring timing buffers for certification.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Yashar party wins the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, using specific tie-breaking rules if seat counts are equal.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Yashar secures the second finishing position in the ranking of Knesset seats won in the 2026 legislative election. The market resolves to No if another party or coalition finishes in second place. Parties are ranked primarily by seats won; ties are broken first by total valid votes received, and then alphabetically by party or coalition name. The market resolves to Other if election results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Israeli government and Central Elections Committee results if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — Date legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Israeli government and the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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