Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 20?

Current price

91.05¢

+5.55¢ · 24h

Implied probability 91.05%
$24K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 65–96.8¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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The resolution rules clearly define the exact metric, trading pair, exchange, and timestamp used to determine the outcome. Resolution hinges strictly on the final Close price of the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle at 12:00 PM ET on October 20, leaving minimal room for source discretion or interpretive ambiguity. Participants should simply note that the market relies solely on Binance spot data rather than an index or aggregate price across multiple exchanges.

Wording ambiguity: Low
Source discretion: Low
Timing risk: Low
Exceptional clauses: Low

Liquidity

Medium tradability

Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.

Book depth $31K within 5¢ of mid
Depth updated 2 min ago

Price history range

Price history

Market price

24h7dAll

Why it moved

Up 13 points · 18 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC

Coin price

The probability rose from 76% to 89% as Bitcoin climbed 0.67% on Binance during the hour, narrowing the gap toward the $80,000 threshold and making reaching the level more likely.

Largest hourly change: 22:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
BTC (Binance): +0.7% in the move hour, +0.3% over 24 hours.
Closes 26 hours after the move hour.
3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 3 in the same direction. Largest: 82,000 (up), 84,000 (up), 78,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 00:05 UTC

Resolution rules

Captured Oct 13, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin is above $80,000 on October 20. Resolution depends strictly on a specific one-minute candle on Binance for the BTC/USDT pair rather than prices from other exchanges or trading pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET on October 20 has a final Close price strictly higher than $80,000. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The deciding source is Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data, with price precision determined by the source.

Key dates

Target date and candle close: Oct 20, 2026 — The 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET is evaluated.

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1m candle close price

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 18 Oct 2026, 02:33 UTC

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