PolymarketCloses · in 2 daysPart of Bitcoin above ___ on October 22? →

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 22?

Current price

85¢

+17.5¢ · 24h

Implied probability 85%
$4.6K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 60.5–88.5¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

The rules provide precise and objective resolution criteria. The outcome is determined by a single specific metric: the close price of the 1-minute BTC/USDT candle at 12:00 PM ET on October 22 on Binance. The exact URL, pair, candle interval, and timezone are clearly defined, leaving no room for decider discretion or ambiguous timing.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

Liquidity

Medium tradability

Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.

Book depth $14.6K within 5¢ of mid
Price history range

Price history

Market price
40¢60¢80¢100¢15:2623:2507:2315:21
60¢70¢80¢90¢Oct 18Oct 18Oct 19Oct 19
78¢80¢82¢84¢86¢Oct 18Oct 19Oct 19Oct 19

Why it moved

Up 14 points · 18 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC

Coin price

The contract rose from 71% to 85% as Bitcoin gained 0.67% on Binance during the hour of the move and 1.3% over the window, narrowing its distance to the $80,000 threshold to 3.15% and making the target more achievable.

  • Largest hourly change: 22:00 UTC, 57% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.7% in the move hour, +1.3% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: 84,000 (up), 78,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 13:51 UTC

Up 11 points · 18 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC

Coin price

The market rose from 72% to 82% as Bitcoin gained 0.67% on Binance in the move hour, making it more likely to finish above $80,000.

  • Largest hourly change: 22:00 UTC, 76% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.7% in the move hour, +0.7% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: 84,000 (up), 78,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 19 Oct 2026, 01:05 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin exceeds $80,000 at a specific minute on October 22, 2026. Resolution depends strictly on Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle rather than an aggregate index or other exchanges.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET on October 22 has a final Close price strictly greater than $80,000. It resolves to No if the Close price is equal to or less than $80,000. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places provided by the source. The outcome is decided using the BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data from Binance.

Key dates

  • Evaluation time: — Price evaluated at the 12:00 PM ET 1-minute candle close.

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle Close price

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Community forecast

Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.