Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election?
Current price
11¢
+4.55¢ · 24h
Implied probability 11%
$5.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the official outcome of the 2026 New York Attorney General election, with a clear provision that the contract follows the Republican Party nominee even if the specific named individual changes before election day. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, but any ambiguity explicitly defers to the official certification by the responsible electoral authority. The timeout date of July 31, 2027 provides ample time for certification and legal disputes to conclude, resolving to 'Other' only if results remain definitively unknown.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 New York Attorney General election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 New York Attorney General election. If a party nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement candidate.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate from the Republican Party wins the 2026 New York Attorney General election. The market resolves to No if the Republican Party candidate does not win. If the definitive results are not known by July 31, 2027, the market resolves to Other. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the certifying electoral authority deciding in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election day: — The election is currently scheduled for this date.
- Resolution deadline: — If results are not definitively known by this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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