Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
Current price
75.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 75.5%
$44.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market follows a standard, clearly defined election resolution mechanism with minimal ambiguity. Resolution relies on three explicitly named major news networks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—requiring a unanimous call among all three. If a consensus call is not reached among those outlets, resolution defaults objectively to official state certification. Party representation rules are straightforward, clarifying that only official party nominees count and independent runs are excluded. Potential nominee replacements prior to election day are explicitly accounted for without altering the core party-win condition.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party options even if affiliated with that party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election. The market resolves No if a candidate representing another party or an independent wins. Candidates must be the official nominee of the party, and replacement nominees will take the place of any named candidate. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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