Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Current price
7.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.5%
$289.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how seats are attributed, including a crucial condition that if Likud runs on a joint candidate list with other parties or merges, all seats won by the entire combined list will be counted rather than only those awarded to Likud members. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting with official results from Israel's Central Elections Committee acting as a backstop. A timeout rule dictates that if results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Likud party will secure between 30 and 34 Knesset seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. It accounts for seat totals from any joint lists or merged parties.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Likud wins between 30 and 34 seats in the Knesset in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. If Likud runs on a joint candidate list or merges with another party, all seats won by the joint list or merged party count toward the total. The market resolves No if Likud wins fewer than 30 seats or more than 34 seats. If election results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with Israel's Central Election Committee serving as the definitive source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — Date legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel.
- Definitive result deadline: — Market resolves to the lowest range bracket if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or Israel's Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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