US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
Current price
85¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 85%
$76K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on whether a qualifying US strike directly impacts Iranian sovereign land territory. The rules contain specific inclusions and exclusions, explicitly excluding intercepted munitions, debris, naval gunfire, artillery, small drones, and maritime or airspace strikes. Resolution relies on official government statements and a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single definitive authority. If reports conflict, an adjudicator evaluates the totality of information after a three-day waiting period, creating significant decider discretion regarding state attribution, weapon classification, and whether an impact was direct versus intercepted debris.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States refrains from carrying out a qualifying air or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iranian terrestrial territory through October 28.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States does not conduct a qualifying military action against Iran by October 28 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves to No if the United States takes a qualifying military action by that deadline. A qualifying action is an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran's terrestrial territory or internal waters. Intercepted munitions, debris, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval or artillery fire, minor drone/ATGM strikes, and unexecuted threats do not qualify. Official information from the US and Iranian governments/militaries and a consensus of credible reporting decide the outcome. If reports conflict, resolution may wait up to 3 calendar days after first reported evidence.
Key dates
- Evaluation deadline: — 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time
Resolution source
Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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