Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 21?
Current price
97.4¢
+8.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 97.4%
$10.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has very specific and objective resolution criteria. It identifies an exact resolution source (the Binance BTC/USDT pair), a precise timeframe (the 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET on October 21), and the exact metric to look at (the candle's final Close price). There is virtually no source discretion or timing ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin exceeds $78,000 on October 21. It relies exclusively on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle at a specific time rather than an aggregate index or other trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET on October 21 has a final Close price strictly higher than $78,000. It resolves to No if the final Close price is equal to or less than $78,000. Binance BTC/USDT serves as the sole resolution source, disregarding prices from other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision follows the decimal places reported by Binance.
Key dates
- Price evaluation time: — 12:00 PM ET 1-minute candle close on Binance BTC/USDT
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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