Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
3.25¢
+0.9¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.25%
$3.3M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market specifically ties resolution to the individual sworn in as Prime Minister following the next parliamentary election (scheduled for October 2026 or held earlier). It explicitly excludes interim or caretaker Prime Ministers. However, because the rules require an election to take place before determining the outcome, any mid-term transition or change in Prime Minister occurring without a parliamentary election would not trigger resolution under these terms. Additionally, the question asks specifically about one candidate, but the resolution text references resolving to 'Other' if no one is sworn in by December 31, 2027. Resolution relies on official Israeli government announcements with secondary reference to consensus media reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Avigdor Lieberman will become the next Prime Minister of Israel following the next parliamentary election, scheduled for October 2026 or held earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Avigdor Lieberman is officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election or an early election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. The market resolves to Other if no individual is formally sworn in as Prime Minister by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting will decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Scheduled parliamentary election: — Scheduled date for Israel's legislative elections.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by this time.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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