Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
8 live outcomes · highest priced: Flávio Bolsonaro <4% at 40% (−1 pts in 24h) · first close Oct 26, 2026 · $2.6M total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome and margin of victory in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Markets represent specific victory margin brackets for the named candidates.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as a set of mutually exclusive margin-of-victory brackets partitioned by winning candidate and percentage range. At most one market can resolve Yes, as the final margin of victory will fall into only one designated bracket (with boundary ties resolving to the higher range bracket).
How it resolves
Each market resolves Yes if its specified candidate wins the second round within the specified percentage margin of victory, and No otherwise. Margin of victory is the absolute difference between the valid vote percentages of the top two candidates relative to all valid votes. If a value falls exactly on a boundary, it resolves to the higher range bracket. If another candidate wins, if there is a tie, or if definitive results are not known by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other'. Resolution is based on official results from a consensus of credible reporting or the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
Key dates
- Second Round Election Date: — Scheduled date for the second round of the presidential election.
- Resolution Deadline: — If definitive results are not known by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting or official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro <4% | 40% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% | 27% | ▼ 4 | Med | Med | |
| Lula da Silva <4% | 21% | ▲ 2 | Med | High | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | 9% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ | 3% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| Lula da Silva 4-8% | 2% | ▲ 1 | Med | High | |
| Lula da Silva 8-12% | 1% | ▲ 1 | Med | High | |
| Lula da Silva 12%+ | <1% | ±0 | Med | High |