Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?
Current price
0.65¢
−0.6¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.65%
$105K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules significantly broaden the scope compared to what a reader seeing only the title might expect. A resolution of Yes requires only an agreement or pledge to transfer any amount or portion of enriched uranium outside Iran, even if the agreement is merely a non-finalized precondition to a broader deal or is never actually implemented. Agreements to cap or down-blend enrichment levels do not qualify. Additionally, there is no designated official verifying authority such as the IAEA; resolution relies entirely on the market operator evaluating a consensus of credible reporting to determine whether a qualifying diplomatic pledge occurred.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran will publicly agree to surrender any portion of its enriched uranium stockpile to an outside entity by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran publicly agrees or officially pledges, by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, to transfer, ship, or place any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile under the custody or control of an entity outside Iran and its influence. This qualifies whether unilateral, part of a deal with the U.S. or Israel, or as a precondition to a peace process, regardless of when it goes into effect. Transfers to Iranian-aligned groups or non-state armed actors do not qualify, nor do agreements that merely cap or limit enrichment levels. The market resolves to No if no such agreement is made by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting will decide resolution.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The deadline by which Iran must publicly agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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