Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Current price
40.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 40.5%
$330.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the calculation for margin of victory using official Tribunal Superior Eleitoral data, but there are multiple structural caveats. First, the rules reference bracket resolution mechanics and resolving to 'Other' if someone other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Lula wins, or if a tie occurs, suggesting multi-option market rules applied to a binary-phrased question. Second, resolving to 'Other' rather than 'No' if the election outcome is not definitive by June 30, 2027, or if another candidate wins, creates potential misalignment for participants expecting a standard Yes/No resolution. Additionally, the rules mention resolving via a consensus of credible reporting first, falling back to official TSE data only if ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin of less than 4% of valid votes.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round of the presidential election by a margin of victory of less than 4% of valid votes. The market resolves to No if Flávio Bolsonaro does not win within this specific margin. The market resolves to Other if a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes, if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, or if the result is not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If a recount occurs before official certification, the market stays open until completion. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved solely by official results from the Brazilian government via the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE).
Key dates
- Second round election date: — Scheduled date for the second round of the Brazilian presidential election.
- Definitive result deadline: — Market resolves to Other if the outcome is not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
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