Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
3 live outcomes · highest priced: No Hormuz Agreement at 96% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $1.8M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether the United States and Iran announce a diplomatic agreement on Strait of Hormuz traffic by October 23, 2026, and, if so, which political party wins control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of mutually exclusive outcomes covering the possible joint scenarios of a Hormuz agreement combined with Senate control, as well as an outcome for no agreement occurring. Exactly one outcome will resolve Yes.
How it resolves
If no qualifying diplomatic agreement between the US and Iran over Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic is announced by October 23, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves immediately to No Hormuz Agreement. If an agreement is announced by that deadline, resolution depends on which party wins control of the Senate in the 2026 midterms (majority of voting seats, or half plus the Vice Presidency, with tiebreakers based on President Pro Tempore).
Key dates
- Hormuz Agreement Announcement Deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
- Senate Election Schedule Baseline: — Date as of which November 2026 Senate elections are scheduled
- Independent Caucus Decision Deadline: January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year if independent caucus intent is not determined on election day
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Hormuz Agreement | 96% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| Hormuz Agreement; D Senate | 2% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| Hormuz Agreement; R Senate | 2% | ±0 | Med | High |