Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election?
Current price
38¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 38%
$3.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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There is a mismatch between the simple binary question asking whether the Democratic candidate will win and the provided rules, which describe a bracketed margin-of-victory market structure. The text outlines specific calculations for vote percentage differentials, alphabetical tie-breaking procedures between candidates' last names, rounding rules for values falling exactly between brackets, and a resolution to 'Other' if results are not certified by June 30, 2027. Official certification by state electoral authorities is the primary resolution source, with consensus reporting allowed as a backup, minimizing source discretion, but the inclusion of margin-bracket mechanics for a binary question presents significant potential confusion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Kansas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Kansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the 2026 Kansas Senate election, evaluated alongside margin brackets defined by official vote percentages.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the official vote count margin of victory between the top two candidates. Candidates nominated by the Democratic Party represent the Democratic option, and replacement nominees count if a candidate is replaced before election day; independent candidates do not represent the party. If a recount occurs before the vote is official, the market stays open until it finishes. If the value falls exactly between brackets, it resolves to the higher margin bracket. In a tie for first place, specific alphabetical tiebreakers apply. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or a tie occurs between unlisted candidates, the market resolves to Other. The primary resolution source is the state electoral authority responsible for certifying results, with an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — The date the 2026 Kansas Senate election is expected to be held.
- Definitive result cutoff: — Results must be known definitively by 11:59 PM ET or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
The official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
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