Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Current price
33¢
−9.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 33%
$36K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on credible reporting with an explicit fallback to official results published by Israel's Central Election Committee. A critical rule to track is how alliances are handled: if Likud contests the election as part of a joint candidate list or merged party, the total seats won by the entire joint list are counted rather than only Likud's individual seat share. Additionally, if official results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, the market features a specific timeout clause that forces resolution to the lowest range bracket.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Likud party will win between 20 and 24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. Notably, if Likud merges with another party or runs on a joint candidate list, all seats won by the combined entity are counted toward Likud's total.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Likud wins between 20 and 24 seats in the Knesset in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. All seats won by a joint candidate list or merged party count toward this total if Likud runs jointly or merges prior to the election. The market resolves No if the party wins a different number of seats. If election results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by Israel's Central Election Committee if results are ambiguous.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — Expected date of the Israeli legislative election.
- Resolution deadline: — If results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket.
Resolution source
Israel's Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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