Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$1.8M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The question asks if Itamar Ben Gvir will be the next Prime Minister, but the rules tie resolution specifically to the individual sworn in following the 2026 parliamentary election or an early election. As a result, a non-election change in leadership or coalition reshuffle where a new Prime Minister takes office without a preceding general election creates ambiguity against the question's premise. Additionally, interim or caretaker appointments are explicitly excluded from qualifying. The resolution relies primarily on official Israeli government records, with a clear fallback deadline of December 31, 2027, resolving to Other if no qualifying individual is sworn in.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Itamar Ben Gvir will become the next Prime Minister of Israel following the next parliamentary election, excluding interim or caretaker appointments.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Itamar Ben Gvir is officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election or any early election called prior to it. The market resolves to No if a different individual is officially appointed and formally sworn in following that election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count for resolution. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting, determines the outcome.
Key dates
- Scheduled parliamentary election: — Legislative elections scheduled in Israel.
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for a Prime Minister to be sworn in before resolving to Other.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.