Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
Current price
88¢
−1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 88%
$100.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify what determines the winner, explicitly accounting for any necessary run-offs. Party affiliation is strictly tied to official nomination, noting that independent candidates will not count toward the party options even if affiliated. Resolution relies on consensus calls from three named news organizations (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with an explicit fallback to official state certification if all three do not agree on the winner. Replacement of a party nominee before election day is also clearly addressed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Mississippi U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Mississippi, inclusive of any run-offs. Candidates running as independents are excluded from representing the Republican party regardless of prior affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official Republican nominee wins the 2026 Mississippi U.S. Senate race, inclusive of any run-offs. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee represents the party. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Republican outcome regardless of party affiliation. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.