Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Current price
20.5¢
+2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 20.5%
$253.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Holders should be aware of several specific conditions in the rules that significantly alter standard expectations. First, the rules state the market resolves to 'Other' if any candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes, meaning a victory by another challenger triggers 'Other' regardless of margin. Additionally, the source hierarchy introduces discretion by citing a consensus of credible reporting first, falling back on the official Superior Electoral Court data only if ambiguity arises. Finally, while margin calculation is explicitly defined using valid votes, bracket-boundary rules specify rounding up to the higher bracket if a figure falls directly on the boundary.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin of victory of less than 4% of valid votes.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the second round of the presidential election by a margin of victory of less than 4% of valid votes. The market resolves to No if Lula does not win within this margin range. The market resolves to Other if a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes, if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, or if the definitive result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Margin of victory is the absolute difference between the valid vote percentages of the top two candidates. If a value falls exactly between brackets, it resolves to the higher range. If a recount occurs before the vote is official, the market stays open until the recount finishes. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Brazilian government via the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Second round election date: — The scheduled date for the second round of the presidential election in Brazil.
- Definitive result deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with fallback to the Brazilian government's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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