US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?
Current price
95.4¢
+2.9¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.4%
$288.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market contains highly granular exclusions that deviate from a casual understanding of a ceasefire. For instance, the market only resolves to No on specific direct air or surface-to-surface missile strikes impacting Iranian terrestrial soil; actions such as naval gunfire, rocket artillery, ground incursions, cyber operations, or strikes that are intercepted before impact (even if falling debris causes damage) do not count. Additionally, strikes against Iranian maritime vessels or into Iranian airspace without terrestrial impact are excluded. Adjudication relies on a consensus of credible media reporting and official statements from US and Iranian militaries, which introduces decider judgment when verifying attribution or whether a munition was intercepted prior to impact. A three-day investigation delay applies if reports conflict.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States avoids taking a qualifying military action against Iranian terrestrial territory through October 22, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States does not execute a qualifying military action impacting Iran by October 22, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. The market resolves to No if the United States initiates an air strike (including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones) or a surface-to-surface missile strike (including cruise or ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones) that directly impacts Iranian terrestrial territory or internal waters by the deadline. Munitions intercepted or destroyed before impact, debris, surface-to-air missiles, artillery, ground incursions, cyber operations, and unexecuted threats do not qualify. Determination is based on official US and Iranian military/government statements and a consensus of credible reporting, with up to a 3-day review period for conflicting reports.
Key dates
- End date: — Cutoff time is 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting
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