Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Current price
84.5¢
−2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 84.5%
$13.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact metric used for resolution: the upper bound of the target federal funds range determined at the FOMC meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026. The official Federal Reserve statement and website are designated as the direct resolution sources. The rules include straightforward rounding instructions for unconventional rate adjustments and an unambiguous fallback resolving to no change if no statement is issued before the following meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve leaves the upper bound of the target federal funds rate unchanged following its October 2026 meeting. It includes a fallback provision resolving to no change if no statement is released before the conclusion of the next scheduled meeting.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC maintains the upper bound of the target federal funds range with zero basis points of change compared to the level immediately prior to the October 2026 meeting. The market also resolves to Yes (the No change outcome) if no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled FOMC meeting. The market resolves to No if the upper bound of the rate is increased or decreased. If a rate adjustment does not match a standard bracket, the change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. The deciding source is the FOMC statement issued after the meeting or data published on the official Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting dates: Scheduled meeting dates for the October 2026 FOMC policy decision.
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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