Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Current price
21.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 21.5%
$111.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how seats are counted, including an explicit condition that all seats won by any joint candidate list or merged party involving Likud will be fully attributed to Likud's total. Resolution relies on consensus reporting with a named official fallback to Israel's Central Elections Committee. There is an exceptional clause stating that if official results are not known by October 31, 2027, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket rather than canceling.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Likud party will win between 25 and 29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. Unusually, if Likud enters a joint candidate list or merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by that combined list or merged party count toward the total.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Likud wins between 25 and 29 seats in the Israeli Knesset in the 2026 legislative election. If Likud runs as part of a joint candidate list or merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the joint list or resultant merged party count toward this total. The market resolves No if Likud (or its joint/merged list) wins any other number of seats. If election results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from Israel's Central Election Committee if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on this date.
- Definitive results deadline: — If results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting or Israel's Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit)
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