US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

This event tracks whether the United States and Iran will announce a diplomatic agreement concerning maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz on or before specific target dates.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of multiple date-based markets structured around target deadlines. Because each market evaluates whether an agreement is announced by its specified date, an agreement announced by an earlier date would fulfill the conditions for all subsequent deadline markets, meaning multiple markets can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran regarding traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is announced by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. The agreement must establish Iranian commitments to permit, restore, or increase vessel or shipping traffic. Both countries must issue declarative statements confirming acceptance of the same agreement, either jointly or separately. If statements are ambiguous, the market remains open for definitive confirmation or for 14 calendar days after the last announcement before resolving on the totality of information. Otherwise, the market resolves to No.

Key dates

• October 15 deadline: Deadline of 11:59 PM ET on October 15 for the October 15 market (year not specified).
• October 31 deadline: Deadline of 11:59 PM ET on October 31 for the October 31 market (year not specified).

Resolution source

Official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 16:33 UTC