Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?
Current price
66.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 66.5%
$57.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines its resolution criteria based on valid votes cast outside Brazil in the second round of the 2026 presidential election. The primary authority is explicitly identified as the official data published under 'Exterior' by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE). A standard consensus of credible reporting is referenced for reporting the outcome, backed directly by official government data in case of any discrepancy. Clear tie-breaking mechanics via alphabetical order and a reasonable longstop timeout date are provided.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from voters abroad, meaning votes cast outside Brazil and reported by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under “Exterior”. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won abroad. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will receive the most valid votes cast from abroad in the second round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election. It specifically tracks only votes reported under the "Exterior" category.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes (or the candidate) if Lula wins the most valid votes cast outside Brazil in the second round of the presidential election, with ties broken by the alphabetical order of candidates' full names as listed. The market resolves to No if another candidate finishes with the most votes abroad after applying tiebreakers. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Second round election date: — Scheduled date for the second round of the presidential election in Brazil.
- Definitive result deadline: — Market resolves to Other if the result is not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) or consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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