Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-07 House seat?
Current price
93¢
+1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 93%
$24.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning New Jersey's 7th congressional district in the 2026 midterms. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly handle independent or third-party winners by evaluating ballot affiliation or expressed caucusing intent at the time all House elections are called, leaving little room for misinterpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win New Jersey's 7th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, including candidates who express intent to caucus with Democrats if not listed on the ballot.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NJ-07 seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, or is an independent candidate who most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party (such as the Republican Party) or intending to caucus with another party wins the seat. The winning candidate and party are determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If reporting remains ambiguous, the market resolves based solely on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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