Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?
Current price
29.5¢
−2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 29.5%
$39.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly specifies the target race as the TX-23 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to Federal Election Commission data if reporting is ambiguous. The rules also establish clear criteria for candidate party affiliation, noting that candidates without a ballot affiliation will be attributed based on their stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are resolved. While evaluating consensus reporting involves judgment, the overall resolution structure matches standard election market expectations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic candidate will win Texas's 23rd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections. Party affiliation includes caucus intent for candidates lacking a standard party ballot listing.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate in Texas's 23rd congressional district is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or, if unlisted, the party with which the candidate most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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