Will Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$26.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define how the winner is determined based on the electoral list winning the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. Detailed tie-breaking procedures are explicitly laid out (seats, then valid votes, then alphabetical order). The rules also specify that the seat count strictly belongs to the registered electoral list rather than post-election parliamentary factions. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting with the official Republic Electoral Commission named as the definitive fallback, and a clear timeout date is provided if results are delayed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election. Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the electoral list "Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!" will win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the named electoral list wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia in the 2026 parliamentary election. Ties in seat count are broken first by total valid votes received, and then by alphabetical order of the list names. The market resolves to No if another list finishes higher under these rules. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia serving as the definitive source in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the Serbian parliamentary election.
- Result determination deadline: — Deadline by 11:59 PM ET for results to be definitively known, or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia as the fallback source in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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