Kansas Senate Election Margin of Victory
3 live outcomes · highest priced: Marshall 0-5% at 38% (+3 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $14.7K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 Kansas Senate election, measuring the winning candidate and their specific margin of victory between the top two candidates.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as mutually exclusive percentage brackets and winning outcomes for the candidates. Because the election will yield a single final margin of victory, at most one market bracket can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves Yes if the winning party candidate's margin of victory falls within the specified percentage bracket, calculated as the absolute difference between the vote shares of the first-place and second-place candidates out of all valid votes cast. If a value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. Markets resolve once the vote count is made official. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the markets resolve to Other.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Expected date of the 2026 Kansas Senate election.
- Resolution Deadline: — 11:59 PM ET cutoff after which markets resolve to Other if results remain unknown.
Resolution source
Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall 0-5% | 38% | ▲ 3 | Low | Med | |
| Hamilton Wins | 38% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Marshall 5-10% | 19% | ▲ 2 | Low | Med | |
| Marshall 30%+ | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Marshall 25-30% | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Marshall 20-25% | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Marshall 15-20% | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Marshall 10-15% | — | — | Not rated | — |