Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
Current price
90.5¢
+2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 90.5%
$168.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes winning the race and how party representation is determined. Candidates running as independents are explicitly excluded from party options even if they caucus or affiliate with that party. If a nominee is replaced prior to election day, the market follows the new nominee. Resolution relies on three named media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) calling the race unanimously, with an objective fallback to official state certification if the networks do not agree.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire. Notably, candidates running as independents are excluded from party options regardless of any party affiliations.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official nominee of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. The market resolves No if a nominee from another party or an independent wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Democratic or Republican options regardless of their party affiliations. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if they do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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