Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

This event tracks whether a state of ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues without qualifying military strikes across a series of potential end dates.

How the outcomes relate

The event is structured as a series of chronological target dates. More than one market can resolve Yes if the ceasefire holds through multiple successive milestones, but an earlier qualifying strike resolving an earlier market to No would also cause subsequent date markets to resolve No.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if a ceasefire remains in effect through 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST) on the listed date. It resolves to No if either Israel or Iran conducts a qualifying military action—defined as an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting the other's terrestrial territory or internal waters—between market creation and the target date. Intercepted munitions, debris, ground incursions, cyber operations, and minor strikes do not qualify. Determination is based on consensus reporting from official government and military sources and credible reporting.

Key dates

• October 31 Target: Ceasefire evaluated through October 31 at 11:59 PM IRST.
• December 31 Target: Ceasefire evaluated through December 31 at 11:59 PM IRST.

Resolution source

Official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC