Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?
Current price
35.5¢
+4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 35.5%
$10.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market defines the margin calculation clearly, establishing that percentages are based on total valid votes cast and measuring the absolute difference between the first- and second-place finishers. Official certified results from the state electoral authority serve as the primary source, with consensus reporting available as an alternative. Standard election certification timing applies, with specific waiting provisions for recounts and a longstop date of June 30, 2027. Participants should note the detailed tiebreaker rules, which allocate a tie between candidates based on alphabetical order of their ballot last names to the lowest margin bracket, as well as the provision shifting values falling exactly on a bracket boundary into the higher margin category.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the 2026 Texas Senate election by a margin of victory of 0% to 3%.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the election with a margin of victory between 0% and 3% based on the official vote count. Margin of victory is the absolute difference between the valid vote percentages of the top two candidates, divided by all valid votes cast. If the margin falls exactly on the boundary between brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. If candidates tie for first place, the tie resolves to the lowest bracket for the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. The market resolves No if the Democratic nominee does not win within this margin range. The market resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or if an untangled tie occurs between two unlisted candidates. The primary resolution source is the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results, with an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — The 2026 Texas Senate election is expected to be held on this date.
- Definitive result deadline: — If election results are not known definitively by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
The state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting
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