Will the Republican Party win the NJ-07 House seat?
Current price
6¢
−3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6%
$25K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party of the winner of New Jersey's 7th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how to handle independent candidates based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official government election results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. While consensus reporting leaves some judgment to the decider, the clear outcome structure and authoritative fallback minimize the chance of unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the New Jersey's 7th Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NJ-07 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or most recently expressed caucus intent if unaffiliated, evaluated when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a non-Republican candidate wins the seat. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The election date for the NJ-07 congressional district seat.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback source.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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