Alaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

This event tracks the first-round margin of victory in the 2026 Alaska Senate election. Its markets measure the percentage-point spread between the top two candidates across candidate-specific margin brackets.

How the outcomes relate

Markets are structured into distinct percentage margin brackets for individual candidates. Because the election will yield a single official first-round victory margin, at most one candidate margin bracket can resolve Yes. If results are not definitively known by the deadline or involve certain unlisted ties, an 'Other' outcome applies.

How it resolves

Each market resolves Yes if the specified candidate wins the first round by a margin of victory falling within the designated percentage bracket, and No otherwise. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference between the vote shares of the first- and second-place candidates relative to all valid votes cast. If a margin falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve to 'Other'. If a recount occurs before official totals are finalized, resolution waits until the recount finishes.

Key dates

• Expected election date: Nov 3, 2026 — Expected date for the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election.
• Definitive resolution deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — Results must be known definitively by 11:59 PM ET or the market resolves to Other.

Resolution source

Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the 2026 Alaska senate election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 18 Oct 2026, 00:32 UTC