Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Current price
61.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 61.5%
$605.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly specify how the winner is determined, relying on the official seat count won by the list as registered on the ballot. If two lists tie on seats, explicit tie-breaking criteria are established: valid vote totals first, followed by alphabetical order. While resolution initially references a consensus of credible reporting, it explicitly designates the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia as the deciding authority if any ambiguity arises. A long resolution window extending to March 31, 2027 provides sufficient buffer for election certification, resolving to Other if official results are not definitive by that cutoff.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election. Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the electoral list "Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia" will win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election, based strictly on the list's name as it appears on official proclamations regardless of internal party composition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the "Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia" list finishes in the highest position based on the number of seats won. If lists tie on seats, the tie is broken first by total valid votes received, and then by alphabetical order. The market resolves to No if another list wins the highest ranking. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the Serbian parliamentary election.
- Result determination deadline: — If election results are not definitively known by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia deciding in cases of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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