PolymarketCloses · in 6 daysPart of Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner →

Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Current price

31.5¢

−7¢ · 24h

Implied probability 31.5%
$647.5K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 26.5–43.5¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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The rules clearly define how the winner is determined based on the official electoral list winning the most seats in the National Assembly of Serbia, with explicit tie-breaking criteria based on vote counts and alphabetical order. Resolution primary reliance is on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia serving as the definitive backup in case of ambiguity. There is a clear backstop date of March 31, 2027, resolving to Other if official results are not known by then, leaving very little room for unexpected resolution outcomes.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Med
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

Liquidity

High tradability

Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.

Book depth $173.1K within 5¢ of mid
Price history range

Price history

Market price
25¢30¢35¢40¢18:1602:1510:1318:11
25¢30¢35¢40¢45¢Oct 11Oct 14Oct 16Oct 18
30¢35¢40¢45¢Sep 28Oct 5Oct 12Oct 18

Why it moved

Down 12 points · 18 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The contract fell from 39% to 32% as the related outcome Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia moved up, reflecting a repricing across competing outcomes in the market.

  • Largest hourly change: 09:00 UTC, 48% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 6 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia (up).

The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.

AI-generated · 18 Oct 2026, 14:05 UTC

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election. Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether the electoral list "Student List – Students Win" will win the greatest number of seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. Resolution features explicit tie-breaking rules and a definitive deadline fallback.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the "Student List – Students Win" electoral list wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election, ranking highest after applying tie-breakers (total valid votes, then alphabetical order). The market resolves to No if another electoral list occupies the highest finishing position under these criteria. The market resolves to Other if the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia serving as the deciding source in cases of ambiguity.

Key dates

  • Election date: — Scheduled date for the Serbian parliamentary elections.
  • Resolution fallback deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET after which the market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known.

Resolution source

Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (in case of ambiguity) or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

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